I read this article - The Next 10 Ebook Trends to Watch For and I thought they were kinda not so, well, not so helpful.
I decided to make my own predictions. And I just edited to remove my personal bias…
I predict:
1. Publishers and agents will continue their undying love affair with the undead. Vampires will reign supreme.
2. YA will continue to sell (to adults because I maintain most of it is written with adult sensibilities in mind). The majority of stories will continue to be a tri-mera of Harry Potter meets The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe meets Lord of the Rings. Add a little from Twilight, the occasional smattering of Anne McCaffrey’s Dragons of Pern, and throw in some of Madelaine L’ Engle’s Wind In the Door for good measure. There will be rare outstanding exceptions.
3. Shifter romances will continue to feature heroes with odd/animal sex organs. (Back when I was a kid, my dog got dragged down the street by his penis when the female lab he was humping took off in the middle of, well, humping. He screamed the whole way. Didn’t look like a lot of fun to me.)
4. Demons will continue to be poor, misunderstood, misguided souls seeking the redemption that comes only via the love of a good woman. I wouldn’t mind a vile demon.
5. Literary fiction will end up dead as a damn doornail if it continues to be populated by narcissistic whiners. (Leaving my personal bias in.)
6. Publishers and agents will continue to pay lip service to contemporary romance and romantic suspense, but that’s all.
7. Readers will become reacquainted with the art of the short story, thanks to the wonderful world of self-publishing.
8. Thus it follows that writers will learn, or should learn, how to write a decent short story - which is the key to understanding how to write solid works of longer fiction.
9. Sales in untapped and under-appreciated niche markets will grow exponentially thanks to self-publishing.
10. Nonfiction will continue to sell well - both in print and e-book formats.
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That’s a good list, Julia, and I’d vote for it. I’m not too sure about the readers though. Not so many seem to want ‘normal’ length books, if you call normal ~100,000 words. Some nights I wake up thinking that anything longer than an SMS or tweet taxes the modern attention span. Aren’t I cynical old fart?
Ouch, your poor dog. I’m sure that was painful.
I love novellas and short novels and I agree that shorter works are going to get a wider audience due to ebooks. Franky, I don’t like reading anything over 60K anymore. I want stuff I can read in an evening, or for sure a day!
Some more….traditional bookstores will go to bookstore heaven. New bookstores will have “covers” with digital codes. So you can browse, then buy and download on your way out of the store. Schools will start requiring all students to have e-readers. Text books will no longer be available in print, only as e-books. Agents and traditional pubs will dwindle. Organizations that help self-pubbers will grow, as will businesses helping self-pubbers to promote their work. Oh, and hopefully a new, super-specialized niche of “beardy love” romance novels will flourish. Hee hee!
I love the list and the Johnny Carson pic! I’m glad that #7 and #9 are happening now in epublishing.
Brinda - me too! For damn sure!
Penny - I think you should post your own list of predictions. I predict beards will soon be in - there’s a TV show premiering this fall about men with beards!
Daisy - there is nothing more exquisite than a well-written novella or short story. Think Brokeback Mountain - a thing of beauty!
No kidding, Amber! Wince-worthy!
Jacqueline - I prefer works between 25,000 and 85,000 words, altho I have a couple longer works out there.
I think most every prediction on your list will soon come to pass.
I welcome the return of the short story. I’d much rather read a short, satisfying story over a dull one packed with filler. For most of us reading time is limited and valuable, and filler dishonors that.
XXOO Kat
Perhaps your agent predictions are not so accurate. At least the Australian variety will only be seen stuffed in University museums. The average writer will not notice they have become extinct.
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Dang. Almost missed this post. I agree with your list. I think paranormals will still dominate the market for a long time, there will only be more and more shifters and other creatures emerging. Not a bad thing however, but I’m starting to think that’s what NY has a preference for. And totally agree with your personal bias on literary fiction. Lots of whining going on.
Delilah - yup and yup and yup!
I only laughed because it was true. Excellent predictions, Julia.
Thanks for a great list, Julia!
With regards to #1, is it just me or do agents/editors talk out of both sides of their mouths? I remember going to a conference a few years ago where two agents on a panel swore vampires were dead. No more vampires, they both said. Yet, as you point out, they continue to reign supereme. What’s up with that?
Came over from the Passive’s Guy’s blog. Wonderful post. You make me glad my new submission has vile demons.
Love your list, Julia! And I seriously have to agree with #5! Stopped reading litfic for this very reason.
Suzan - me too - after a life-long love of lit fic.
Oooh, Kay, I’m so glad your new submission has vile demons too! Far more intriguing!
Yes, Karl - I’ve heard the same thing. I follow calls for submission. The featured agents/pubs ask for contemporary romances and romantic suspense and even SFR (science fiction romance) and yet, when I follow up to learn which pitches they’ve requested partials or fulls for, it’s ALWAYS paranormal - vampires and shifters, maybe demons, maybe UF. In a year’s time, after following maybe two dozen pitch calls, I have yet to see anyone ask for a partial or full for a contemporary or romantic suspense.
I keep wondering why since I read the pitches and some of the non-paranormal pitches sound damn good, whereas the paranormal pitches often sound exactly alike.
Thanks, Jaye - laugh away!
Great post, Julia. I agree with your points, especially the ones about short fiction. I would respectfully like to pick one nit, though. Didn’t Madelaine L’Engle write The Wind in the Door? Ursula LeGuin wrote the Earthsea books, starting with A Wizard of Earthsea. You can’t go wrong with either, BTW.
Thanks and you are so right! Love both authors and as every presidential candidates says…I misspoke! Gotta fix it!
*waves, from Passive Guy’s link*
I predict that the Ginormous Fat Book will also make a come-back in ebooks. (See also http://jimhines.livejournal.com/591660.html — and while I don’t want it padded and dragging, I grew up with sweet bricks, or series that stretched for miles, that could keep speedy-reader me occupied for more than a day!)
Oh Beth - too funny! I like big books and I cannot lie!
Oh goody! At least some-one likes longer books. I like writing them because there is room to have a few converging threads running through the book, and characters developing through time. I hope my books can stand re-reading, so buyers will keep them on their shelf for future treats.
I’m still going to write shorter pieces though, if only because they earn just as much with far less pain.
I like both long and short, Jacqueline. I think if you can write a great short story -with satisfying beginning, middle and end, you have a leg up on writing longer fiction.
You are so very wise… and entertaining, too!
Thanks, Charlie - sometimes I think I just blab.
Great list — Return of the serial short story perhaps? — Charles Dickens’ style!
Tim, I love the fact that we can now serialize our stories with self-publishing. Short stories were always a great intro for a new author. The big pubs don’t really feature them at all in this economy.